COVID Delta Part 4

A worksheet for conducting your own COVID Delta investment portfolio analysis

Here is a worksheet for conducting your own COVID Delta analysis.  In case you aren’t familiar with the idea behind COVID Delta, check out COVID Delta Part#1: A tool for investment portfolio analysis. 

Interactive COVID Delta Worksheet

1. Enter the ticker symbols for stocks you are interested in.
2. Without looking at prices, add notes for each stock, indicating how you think its value as a company has changed since the Pandemic began in mid February.  I like to do this after listening to the most recent earnings call and looking over the company’s Web site.
3. Enter a “fair” percent change in value given your analysis for each stock.  For example if you think that the pandemic has hurt the company’s earnings but it should recover in a year or two, you might enter “-10%” to indicate you think the company is 10% less valuable now  that it was in February 2020 (assuming there was no pandemic).
4. Look up the most recent price for each stock, and the price on February 19, 2020.  Enter those values in the appropriate column of the worksheet.
5. Calculate the actual percent change and enter it in the appropriate column. 
   • Actual_%_Change = (Recent_Price – Feb_18_Price) / Feb_18_Price
6. Calculate the COVID Delta and record it in the appropriate column. 
   • COVID_Delta = Anticipated % Change – Actual_%_Change
7. Print or save a copy of your analysis and look at it next time you are making an investment decision.  Remember, a positive score means a stock is potentially underpriced compared to what you think it is worth and might be a good buy.  A negative score means it is potentially over-valued, and you should be careful